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4 mental models for smarter decision making


1. 10/10/10 Rule

Most of us have been guilty of making decisions without thinking about the long term consequences, and the 10/10/10/ rule can used to reflect on the long-term by asking yourself:

  • How will we feel about it 10 minutes from now?
  • How about 10 months from now?
  • How about 10 years from now?

It’s easy to make short-term decisions that may be beneficial 10 minutes or 10 months from now, but these types of decisions usually don’t benefit us in the long-term. What’s harder is to make decisions that may not appear attractive or impactful in the short-term, but over time can have a positive impact in your life.

Whenever you’re struggling to go to the gym, resist temptations to eat junk food, or overcoming the difficulties of learning a new skill, use the 10/10/10/ Rule to think not only about how you’ll feel about it later today, but also years from today.

2. Pareto’s Law

In anything we do, there’s always ~20% of activities that will deliver 80% of our desired results.

The origin of Pareto’s Law came from an Italian Economist, Vilfredo Pareto, who noticed that 80% of wealth and land were controlled by only 20% of the people. Today, this concept has been applied to business, health, expenditures, etc.

For example:
  • 80% of our expenditures come from 20% of sources (i.e. rent, mortgage, transportation)
  • 80% of our profits come from 20% of customers
  • 80% of our happiness come from 20% of people in our lives
Pareto’s Law is a useful mental model to be more effective, rather than just be efficient.

3. Parkinson’s Law

Willpower is finite. Some of us may have more than others, but it will always plateau over time.

This is Parkinson’s law.

If we’re given three hours to complete a task that normally would take an hour, we’ll find a way to fill those three hours. However, when we’re down to the final thirty minutes, we’re suddenly feeling the pressure to get things done.

This is a mental model that only you can apply yourself. It’s unlikely that your boss or organization will ask you to work less hours, which means you need to place artificial time limitations when you’re working.

Instead of giving yourself a week to complete a project, break it into smaller activities, and set multiple deadlines during the week to finish them.

4. Eisenhower Matrix

Dwight Eisenhower lived one of the most productive lives you can imagine.

Serving as the 34th President of the United States, he launched programs that directly led to the development of the Interstate Highway System in the United States, the launch of the internet (DARPA), the exploration of space (NASA), and the peaceful use of alternative energy sources (Atomic Energy Act).

Out of the mental models Eisenhower used for smarter decision making, his most productive one was the Eisenhower Matrix.

The way it works is simple.

Whenever he was faced with a decision, activity, or task, he categorized it into one of four categories:

  • Urgent and important (tasks you will do immediately).
  • Important, but not urgent (tasks you will schedule to do later).
  • Urgent, but not important (tasks you will delegate to someone else).
  • Neither urgent nor important (tasks that you will eliminate).